01 DELIVERY RISK MODEL
Know the risk
before it arrives.
Model schedule exposure using historical lead-time performance, delivery variability, float, and daily delay costs.
240simulated shipments
across 15 manufacturers
across 15 manufacturers
Delivery inputsAdjust the assumptions below
Model basis197 day avg± 16.8 days
SCHEDULE RISKModerate
64%on-time probability
Expected delay4.1 days
After float0.0 days
Probability-weighted exposure$0
The required window is 203 days, versus this manufacturer's historical average of 197 days.